Saturday, 31 March 2007
Rollercoaster Day
A small profit on the day so far +£6.95, with the Spanish double header to come.
Posts have been a bit thin on the ground in recent days as I have been setting up another blog with a more appropriate title http://footballtrader.blogspot.com.
My trading updates will now be available at the new blog as Paul the Daddy will concentrate more on the trials and tribulations of being a single Dad.
Wednesday, 28 March 2007
England 3 -0 Andorra
A better 2nd half performance illuminated by Steve Gerrard's 2 goals gave England the minimum win.
Stevie G, Kieron Dyer,David Nugent and also Jermaine Defoe all come out of the game with some credit.
Not the best night of trading with a loss of -£19.03. One more goal would have turned the night around, but at least McClaren will get untold stick in the morning.
Half Time Update
Andorra 0 - 0 England at Half Time and McClaren should just hand in his notice now.
At least that smug grin that has been plastered over his face for the last few years should be permanently wiped from his ruddy face.
Looks like England's ineptitude will cost me a few quid tonight, but I would pay that money to get the FA to admit that they made a complete balls up with the appointment of McClaren.
Hopefully the media witchhunt will not just stop with the manager though, the whole recruitment process was a joke and McClaren's main supporter Brian Barwick should also be out on his ear.
I'm still sure England will do enough to win the game, but whatever the result now it is game over for McClaren.
Update
1 shot on target from Stevie Gerrard is the sum total of a lot of possession.
Still think I will have a little patience as I think if England score once more will follow..
What a shame for McDonut
Lampard injury lifts England
A midfield with Hargreaves and Gerrard has the balance and dynamism to become the fulcrum of England's challenge to qualify for Euro 2008.
Fat Frank may find it hard to get back back into the side.
I can't see anything but a comfortable England win and I am going with a back of over 3.5 goals at 1.55 with a cover bet on a 2-0 and 3-0 win
Will update later
England Expects
Andorra would struggle to hold their own in the Conference, and England will snap up the 3 points tonight without too much trouble.
But even a comfortable win by 4 or 5 goals will do little to repair the damage to McClaren's reputation.
The FA would do well to heed the mood of the nation and the media and start making plans to replace the smug, bald denier.
Trading opportunities on the game are fairly limited, but I would expect England to grind out a win in the region of 3-0 or 4-0.
From yesterday I have a small all green position on the W.Indies v Australia super 8 match. I can't see the hosts getting anywhere near the Aussies total.
Monday, 26 March 2007
100 Not Out
A small cash flow problem has meant that I have had to withdraw most of the money from my Betfair account so have missed a few days of trading.
I managed to find a spare £15 to play with tonight and layed Oxford @1.24 when they went 2-1 up thanks to a horror show from Dagenham keepet Tony Roberts.
A disputed lated goal from the Football League bound Daggers has give me a profit of £62.48 on the day.
This is my 100th post of this blog and the profits are still rolling in..
Sunday, 25 March 2007
McClaren Out!
As I mentioned on 21st March England failing to win was a great bet
For me England are the lay of the season against Israel @ 1.89, and I may have a little piece of that nearer the time.
Just one look at the England full backs Phil Neville (who should have been bombed out of the England set up after Euro 2000) and Jamie Carrgaher was enough to convince me that it would be another night of suffering for fans of the National team.
Add to that Andy Johnson up front, flat track bully Frank Lampard and square pegs in round holes a 0-0 was probably the best that could be hoped for.
The FA need to act after the Andorra game and admit that the appointmet of McClaren was a huge mistake and get rid.
If they don't, England fans are in serious danger of having nobody to support in the Euro 2008 finals
Thursday, 22 March 2007
Trading Update
I tried to nick a few quid on Taylor and as Scholten started to fly I was all over the place staring at some big losses.
Ended up taking a loss of -£89.45 on the day.
Oh well it had to happen at some stage and I will have to take on the chin my biggest loss to date.
Still well up on the month, but need to be more selective with my trading in future
Taylor v Scholten
The Power is very short odds to see off the Tripod, but hopefully I can nick a few quid on that match.
I have just had a little mess around with the matches so far and have a c£10.00 profit to keep the bankroll ticking over.
Will give a final update later tonight
Darts
It is always good to get some idea of how the markets move and the level of volatility before wading in.
Priestley is 4-2 up at the break, will let you know how I get on
Wednesday, 21 March 2007
Daily Update (+£26.48)
I will have to start to diversify my trading into other Sports otherwise the growth in my bankroll is going to slow as the football season comes to an end.
I have my daughter this weekend so there won't be many opportunites for me to trade.
For me England are the lay of the season against Israel @ 1.89, and I may have a little piece of that nearer the time.
Come on the Shaymen
They are looking more likely to go on and win it now and are overpriced at 6.40 to take all 3 points. I have had a small back at that price.
21 hours since my last cigarette
Gone in again
I have backed over 1.5 goals, so need a 2nd goal in the last 30 minutes. Not really sure where it is going to come from given the quality on show.
Fingers crossed
Trading Update
I have greened out my position on over 2.5 goals and will probably end with a daily profit of c.£15.00.
I'm finding it quite hard to concentrate as I am 20 hours without a cigarette (not that i'm counting or anything) and will see how long I can manage this time around. My best abstinence of 2007 so far has been 4 days.
Halifax v Oxford
The price has been on the drift for the last few minutes so just want it to settle down before I enter the market.
I don't fancy risking a large chunk of my bankroll just because I am bored, so I am going to limit my liabilities to a reasonable amount.
With Sr Lanka cruising to victory in the cricket I have C.£7.00 profit in the bag and hope to add to that later
Another Quiet Night
Will probably have a small trade on the match which I will detail later this evening.
I have also bought (hopefully) a couple of quid in the cricket WC by backing Sri Lanka at a prohibitive price.
Tuesday, 20 March 2007
Nothing to trade on
In the week leading up to the game there is invaribly nothing worthwhile trading on and then McClaren's England serve up utter dross.
This evening there is literally nothing to trade on (unless you fancy betting on Speedway or Greyhounds) and both World Cup cricket matches look one sided affairs.
With money making opportunities thin on the ground, I will be trying to explain my trading strategies to any novices out there.
More to follow later
Monday, 19 March 2007
The secret of my success?
I received my first "Bible of Football" at the age of 6 and I haven't looked back since!
In the pre-internet age these tomes were priceless if you wanted to find out any statistics.
Many of my recent trades have been based on current knowledge but i'm sure I will be dipping into this valuable resource as I try to make my first £1000 profit
Trading Update
After recent successes a small profit of +£16.64 is not the greatest, but it keeps the total bank ticking over and keeps the winning run intact.
With the international break kicking in, there is a serious lack of events to trade on this week, so it could be quiet on the trading front.
Half Time Update
Hopefully events will go my way and net me a small profit, but I have a bit of a bad feeling about tonight.
I went away from my normal strategy of laying over 2.5 goals in the Spurs v Chelsea game and have been punished by a 0-0 scoreline at HT.
I have a small profit on the draw and a Spurs win, but will lose c. £20.00 if Chelsea win in 90 minutes.
I did lay over 2.5 goals in the Man U game and have guaranteed a profit on that market of c.£20.00.
However I have also got a relatively large liability if Man Utd fail to win in 9o minutes.
So I need a Man Utd goal and a Spurs goal early in the 2nd half
FA Cup Double Header
So far I have backed the draw at 3.55 for £26.00 and also layed Chelsea to qualify at 1.56 (liability of £28.00).
I think Spurs have enough attacking prowess to trouble Chelsea and have already beaten them at WHL in the Premiership.
I got stung at Old Trafford on Saturday when United steamrollered an anaemic Bolton side, but I think Middlesboro have a bit more about them and can withstand the ineveitable early onslaught that will come their way.
So I have layed over 2.5 goals @ 1.87 - liability of £87.00.
Would be happy to get out with a small profit tonight as anything can happen in the FA Cup
Rules of the Game
Money management is a key facet of successful trading and so far I have been pretty loose with my bankroll. With some good trades and a large dose of luck I have managed to grow my profits much quicker than expected.
However, I don't want to risk a large proportion of my hard earned gains as at some stage I am bound to run into a bad run of results.
I need to investigate money management rules that other successful traders have used to grow their profits, but think a maximum trade of 25% of my available bank will be my starting point.
Another rule that I am implementing is to only keep £500 in my account at anyone time. Any funds over and above £500 will be withdrawn into a seperate holding account.
Sunday, 18 March 2007
Daily Update (+£114.45)
Some solid trading on the Spanish double header has brought me another 3 figure profit on the day.
Things are beginning to go ridiculously well as my dreams of going on a nice summer holiday are looking more realistic.
I have just finished my first 2 weeks of part time trading and have made a grand total of +£523.79.
If I can maintain my current performance I could reach my initial £1000 target by Easter.
FA Cup 6th round replays tomorrow and the nightmare of watching Steve McClaren's England on Wednesday await.
0-0 at Half Time
I have an all green position on the Sevilla v Celta game the over/under 2.5 goals market(+£22.00 whatever the outcome).
Watching the 1st half it is surely only a matter of time before Sevilla break the deadlock, they are still an odds on shot at the moment and don't fancy backing them at that price.
Will keep an eye on it though as I think there is some more money to be made
Updates coming your way later
Sevilla v Celta up next
Having quaffed a bottle of white wine and a curry whilst trading on 2 live football matches already today, I am now being served up another game from Seville.
I have kept faith with my system of laying over 2.5 goals and hope to trade out early for a decent profit.
So far today I am in profit to the tune of +£49.24, and hope to add another few quid to the bankroll in the last game of the evening.
Will update later
Hola
Inspired by 2nd half sub Robinho a comfortable 2-0 victory has helped me to some further profits.
I'm lookng at a c.£39.00 win on the match which keeps the bankroll ticking over.
I've had a great run of results during my first 2 weeks of trading, either I am very lucky or I am bloody good at this!
Don't think I will be able to maintain the type of profits that I have generated so far, but am confident that if I keep my discipline I can make a couple of hundred quid a month fairly easily.
Half Time Update
I have lumped on Madrid at short prices and still think they will get the 3 points, but didn't expect them to make me wait this long.
Hope to report back on a profitable evening later on
Lumping on Madrid
Up against 10 men they must surely have enough to win the match.
Will update later
Late Goal saves the day (again)
My bet on over 2.5 goals never looked likely to come in so I got involved in the match odds and layed the draw. The late goal ensured that the start of trading tonight was profitable. (+£9.65)
A Spanish double header awaits with Real Madrid v Gimnastic up first.
I have layed over 2.5 goals at 1.87 (liability of £26.10) which looks like a bad decision as the massive underdogs have had a player sent off after just 5 minutes.
Just a small anecdote about my daughter, I got a call just now from my estranged wife asking me if I had promised that we would all have a Chinese takeway together tonight - my daughter Mia kept talking about it.
The little lump is only 3 but is already an arch manipulator!
Goals Please
Hoping for a goal before Half Time to lock in a profit
Will update later
Missed Opportunities
With Villa v Liverpool ending 0-0 and no goals at Goodison so far, I could have grown my bankroll even further.
I am going to have a good look at the Everton v Arsenal game before getting involved.
Unfortunately I have to report a -£22.00 loss on the cricket last night when Ireland sensationally dumped Pakisatn out of the World Cup.
Will update any trades later
Saturday, 17 March 2007
Best result yet
I made a profit of +£164.53 on the game to take my daily profit to +£174.67 .
A fantastic run of results means that I am almost half way to my target of winning £1,000 for a holiday within 2 weeks of starting.
I am keeping a watching brief on the Barcelona match and will update if I get invloved.
Blowing Bubbles
I had already backed West Ham and then layed Blackburn at 1.28 after they opened the scoring.
A nice 3 figure profit on the game is coming my way
Full details to follow
Profits at last
Instead of counting the money I have backed the Hammers @ 5.40 for £25.00
Will update later
Blackburn v West Ham
Liability of £168.00 @ 2.05
I also have a feeling that West Ham will put in a performnace today and may get involved with them as the game pans out
Trading Update
My daily position as of 5.00pm is detailed below
Horses +£3.05
Rugby Union +£35.15
Football -£28.06
Total +£10.14
Update
Can't really complain about how things have panned out so far, and hopefully will have some more success during the rest of the day
Fight Back
I have had a small interest in the Italy v Ireland 6 Nations rugby. Layed Ireland(-11.5 points handicap) at odds of 1.56 - liability of £11.20.
Just hope the Italians can keep it tight
Over 4.5 goals
Just hope Man U take their foot off the pedal and help me limit the damage
Bad Start
I traded out a small portion of my liability on over 2.5 goals but still have to take a fairly big loss of -£46.55 on the chin.
My bet on the draw has also gone down and I have a -£21.20 loss on a Man U win.
So looking at almost a £70.00 loss on the game.
What has happened to Bolton? They look awful and could get well and truly hammered.
I will have a look at some of the other in play markets to see if I can limit the damage.
Will report back later
Man Utd v Bolton
With Saha and Solskjaer both out and Larsson back in Sweden, they look a bit short up front, and more importantly Paul Scholes is suspended.
I have layed over 2.5 goals @ 1.89 liability £75.65 (the price has already moved slighly and can now be backed at 1.92).
I have also backed the draw @ 4.50 for £25.00
Friday, 16 March 2007
Happy Birthday to Me!
Will no doubt end up in a pub tonight having a few beers, so will probably give trading a miss today, in preparaton for a bonanza on Saturday.
With 3 live football matches to trade on, 2 WC cricket matches and the climax of the Six nations it should be a busy day in the trading chair.
And what of the Cheltenham Gold Cup today? Can Kauto Star save the punters from another bashing? I will be keeping a watching brief, but fancy Ruby Walsh to guide the Star home
Thursday, 15 March 2007
PR Disaster for Betfair
After speaking to a Betfair customer service agent (are they all Australian?) they tell me that all bets are void.
What a joke!
The guy on the phone played the sympathy card for Betfair saying that they will make no money/commission on the match either and that I should have read the rules before trading on that market.
Well personally I think they should offer the draw as an option to back and lay which would avoid this ridiculous situation.
I'm only a small player so am not that upset, but there will be some big traders who have been stung by this big time tonight.(and some people who will have got out of jail)
All in all a bad night for Betfair, who have let down their punters and scored a PR og in the early stages of the cricket world cup
Drama
With the Africans neeing 9 runs from the final over and 3 runs from the final 2 balls, the game somehow ended in a tie.
Not at all sure what will happen with my trades, I have £28.50 profit if Ireland win and £30.97 if Zimbabwe win. What the feck happens if their is a tie?
It wasn't an option to bet on so hopefully i haven't done my money?
More profits
I have guaranteed a profit regardless of the result in the cricket, so now I can start cheering the Fatherland.
Can't believe the Irish can play cricket and be competitive against Zimbabwe who are not the worst team in the world by any means.
Whatever happens I am going to add c.£10.00 to my profits.
The way my luck is going it is a shame I have run out of events to trade on tonight
Zimbabwe v Ireland
£64.00 bet at 1.22 to win £13.38.
A bit risky seeing as I know very little about cricket, but things looking good so far.
Will update later
An Early Birthday Present
As I mentioned earlier I couldn't believe that I could lay Newcastle to qualify at 1.59 at Half Time, when they were second best for most of the evening. Alkmaar were by far the better team all night and looked one of the best bets that I have seen in my first 10 days of trading
I filled my boots as much as my meagre bankroll allowed and then traded out once the 2nd goal went in.
The final results of the night saw me make £+70.19 on Alkmaar to qualify and +£10.35 on under 2.5 goals giving me a daily profit of +£80.54.
After 10 days trading I am sitting on a profit of +£256.67
Easy pickings?
Alkmaar now look too far to short at 1.20 to qualify.
Newcastle need to score to survive and have plenty of time to get on the scoresheet now that he shackles have been lifted.
I have a guaranteed £75 profit if Alkmaar qualify, but am going to build my position around Newcastle getting that vital away goal.
Will settle for a £60.00 profit on the Dutch side and a 3 figure profit if the Geordies pull off the great escape
Here we go
All in green on the number of goals and Alkmaar to qualify. Should be looking at a decent profit tonight.
Just need to decide how to maximise my profits now.
Will update later
Alkmaar v Newcastle
I could get out for a profit on under 2.5 goals as things stand and have reduced my liability to £34.46. will leave it for 5 minutes or so into the 2nd half before closing out my position.
The market that is interesting me most at the moment is the To Qualify market. Newcastle are available to lay at 1.59, and I already have a strong profitable position on the Dutch side to qualify.
Personally I fancy Alkmaar to score again and think that I am in a strong position to make a decent profit tonight.
Only time will tell, will report back shortly
1-0
My under 2.5 bet is not looking so good, but Alkmaar to qualify should offset any major problems.
Will try and update as the game goes on, but have to keep a close eye on the trading screen
Going Dutch
The shortest price I have ever seen on 2.5 goals was available to lay (1.63) - I have a liability of £63.00.
I have also layed the Geordies to qualify with a liability of c.£33
Will update later - and by the way my cake was demolished!
Wednesday, 14 March 2007
Half Century completed
My trading has been jogging along slowly with a very reasonable £176.00 profit so far.
Big thanks must go to Daryl Murphy of Sunderland and Steed Malbranque (one of the finest talents ever to grace Craven Cottage) who have both kept this show on the road when I have been staring down the barrel of big losses.
In amongst the day to day trading, I have some small positions in a couple of long term markets.
I still have a sneaky suspicion that Chelsea are not out of the race for the Premiership.
Man U have some key players missing through injury and have been scraping results in the last 4-5 games, whilst Chelsea continue to grind out wins with their injury list beginning to clear up.
The visit of Bolton on Saturday is not a foregone conclusion.
At the other end of the table, I still can't believe that the Hammers will meekly bow out without a fight. They performed well against Spurs last time out and could be good value to take something from ther trip to Blackburn on Saturday (considering laying Blackburn at 1.78).
Hopefully by the time I celebrate my 1st century of posts, my profits will be touching the £300 mark
Tell all the boys you know
A tough looking trip to Alkmaar faces Glenn Roeder's side on Thursday night, and despite winning the home leg 4-2 the tie is far from finished.
After trading on the 1st leg I already have a small positive position on either side to qualify, but if the Dutch side score first tomorrow it could be a tough night for Newcastle.
Alkmaar are available at a shade of odds on (1.97) to win the match and I may be tempted to get involved in this tomorrow.
Cake Revealed!
Evening Round Up
Was lookng at a break even position before backing over 1.5 goals in the Man City v Chelsea game. Unfortunately no late goals in that game tonight and lost £20,00 on the trade.
Managed to salvage a nerve wracking £12.80 saver on no more goals on the Spurs v Braga game after surviving a strong penalty claim when Malbranque was scythed down in the box. Amazingly the ref decided that the magical little Belgian had dived and showed him yellow.
At least I have made my cake!
More goals in Manchester?
Over 1.5 goals is available to back at 1.83 and I have gone in with a £17.00 trade to try and turn the night into a profitable one.
Not really trading, but think it is decent value
Firing Blanks
I have an all green position on the Chelsea game (+12.35 if less than 2.5 goals and +£7.66 if more than 2 goals).
The Spurs game was looking great until Huddlestone flicked a header into his own net. Having layed under 2.5 goals at 1.88, I was trading out for a comfortable profit with a back price approaching 2.50.
I've now realised an -£11.03 loss. on the game.
What a player Berbatov is by the way, both his goals tonight have been pure quality
Spurs v Braga
I think a lay of under 2.5 goals @1.85 is decent value and have had a little interest (liability £55.25)
Hopefully I can trade out early for a small profit
Man City v Chelsea
I have therefore layed under 2.5 goals @2.30 with a liability of £84.50.
Chelsea should do enough to grind out another win, but would expect a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline.
Just hope that the under pressure Pearce ensures that it is a cagey opening 20 minutes.
Will update later
Wednesday Update
I have my daughter coming round tonight for a couple of hours and also have to try and bake a cake at some stage, so it should be fairly hectic
I'm looking to break the £200 profit barrier tonight, and after my lucky escapes yesterday only a small return is required to reach my next milestone.
Will update further when I get time tonight
Tuesday, 13 March 2007
Let them eat cake
No doubt it will get loads of abuse, not least because the girl in question has Tourettes.
Strangely enough none of my other work colleagues seem that keen on tasting my creation.
I'm not quite sure if that is because they doubt my culinary expertise, or because they remember the false allegations made by my ex wife in the aftermath of our marriage breakdown.
Being accused of trying to poison her and my daughter out of the blue, and suffering the indignity of a full scale forensic investigation by Scotland Yard certainly was not the best experience of my life.
After being 100% cleared by the police and having my wife withdraw the allegations in court, I wonder if people are genuinely worried?
Trading Update
All the credit must go to Daryl Murphy (my new favourite player), a 2nd half Sunderland substitute who scored a last minue equaliser.
I made a steady start at Cheltenham (+£13.62) mainly thanks to Sublimity who secured Champion Hurdle success in fine style, but my first foray into cricket trading was not great.
Pakistan looked a good thing to chase down an ordinary target set by West Indies, but I was consistently on the wrong side of events and eventually settled for a -£14.76 loss.
As described earlier 3 first half goals at the Stadium of Light got me into a -£60.30 hole, but Murphy's late strike gave me an +£89.30 profit.
So +£27.34 profit on the day and a Total position of +£182.02
COME ON!!
A last minute goal from Murphy has turned around Sunderland's fortunes and kept me in the game.
Having layed Stoke at half time I went back in another couple of times and was staring at a catatrophic loss that would have wiped out all of my profits in one evening.
I now have a £89.30 profit locked in.
A small loss on the cricket as Pakistan look like failing miserably in chasing down a fairly ordinary total set by West Indies (-£14.76)
I will give a summary of the day when I get my breathe back!
Chasing Losses
Hoping for a Sunderland goal.
Absolute Carnage
A nightmare evening of trading on the Sunderland v Stoke game.
I started with a liability of £94.60 on under 2.5 goals and started trading out in small chunks for what looked like a comfortable profit. With 20 minutes gone things were looking comfortable
Then disaster struck, Darren Ward the Sunderand keeper made a howler to allow Stoke to score first and within 60 seconds Sunderland had equalised. 2 goals in 60 seconds left me looking at a £60.00 loss.
As half time approached I was waiting to review my position during the break when in injury time (they played more than the 2 mins specified) Stoke struck again.
So -£60.30 loss puts a big dent in my profits.
Will try and improve my position in the 2nd half and with some small trades on the cricket.
Cheltenham Update
I managed 3 winners - My Way De Solzen, Sublimity and Gaspara to net a +£13.62 profit on the day.
Would have been £50+ profit had Juveigneur not been touched off on the line by a 50/1 shot in the 4.00pm race.
I have had a little dabble on the Cricket, but am mainly keeping a watching brief to learn how the markets react to wickets and run rates etc.
Looking forward to seeing Sunderland tonight, who I expect to secure an automatic promotion place back to the Premiership. Will be looking at the under 2.5 goals later
Monday, 12 March 2007
Good Night
Another good day in the trading chair with a daily profit of +£30.30. Total Trading profits now stand at +£154.18.
Slow and steady progress has been the order of the day in the first 8 days of this blog, but hopefully with my bankroll growing, growth in profits will accelerate in the coming weeks.
With the Cheltenam Festival and Cricket World Cup starting tomorrow there will be plenty of opportunities to trade.
Trading Update
Only one real scare in the 1st half which was repelled by 43 year old keeper Kevin Poole in the Burton keeper.
Worst situation is an £11.65 profit, but looking more likely to make £18.12.
Will update exact details later
Burton v Forest Green
I now have a total liability of £99.64 at average odds of 2.22 (under 2.5 goals), and would be happy to take a £10 profit on the match.
Keeping my fingers crossed that there are no early goals.
Evening Update
I will try and nick a small profit early on by laying under 2.5 goals (currently trading at 2.20). Liability of £24.00 so far.
Not sure if there will be much liquidity on a game like this, so will just tread carefully.
I need to be out of the game in profit by 8.30pm in time for Masterchef goes Large
Horse Trading
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, but I have managed to nick +£9.69 in the first 2 races.
Netherley and Noble Billy both obliged at short odds, and I traded out for a profit before they crossed the winning line.
Think I will bank that and wait for the football tonight before getting involved again.
Sunday, 11 March 2007
Spanish Green
5 minutes after closing my position Osasuna have scored from a dubious penalty.
I have logged out of my Betfair account so there is no temptation to carry on trading. Up about £15.00 on the day (exact details to follow).
I desperately need to grow my bankroll as these successes could be transferred into some serious profits if I had more money to play with.
After 1 full week of part time trading and blogging I am sitting on a profit of c£125.00. If I can get anywhere near that figure in the next 2 -3 weeks I will be well on my way to a decent holiday.
Small Profits
But some important lessons learnt about trading on a game when an early goal stuffs up your position.
At least it keeps the bankroll ticking over and keeps me on track for my summer holidays!
Have layed under 2.5 goals in the Osasuna v Valencia game @ 2.64 (liability of £82.00)
Trading Update
Definitely a different way of doing business, had I done nothing after my initial trade I would have been looking at a £60 profit.
However the protection of my bankroll has become a major factor as I don't have any available cash to start again if I lose badly.
Will update later on exact profits, and how trading goes on the Osasuna v Valencia match tonight
Plymouth v Watford
Bouazza's goal for Watford has put me on the backfoot, and at the moment it looks like I will be trading out for a loss.
I went back in a again and layed under 2.5 goals at 1.92 to give me average odds of 2.60
At Half time with odds standing at 2.46 to back over 2.5 goals I could limit my losses now, and have traded some small chunks at average odds 2.16.
I think I will hang on for another 10 minutes and try and get out of jail.
In trouble?
After being woken at 6.00am after 4 hours sleep and with a red wine hangover, the last thing you want to hear from your daughter is that she has filled her nappy.
It was touch and go whether I was going to hold onto the contents of my stomach but somehow managed to muddle through.
Thankfully I was unable to trade the Boro v Man Utd and Chelsea v Spurs games and avoided the carnage of high scoring games.
I fancied my chances of nicking a profit on the Blackburn v Man City game, but unfortunately I returned home to darkness (my electricity meter had run out), and by the time I got back I had missed out.
Never mind there was always the Plymouth v Watford game to end the weekend on a high.
Friday, 9 March 2007
In the Red
After missing the start of the Birmingham v Derby game I had a very small profit guaranteed (see last post).
When Vine scored just before Half time I started trading under 2.5 goals again, laying @2.54.
The price moved up quickly and I soon was in position with c.£5.00 profit on any outcome.
When McSheffrey got sent off I layed Birmingham at 1.36 for a £19.00 liability, but to be fair Derby never looked like scoring.
So a night that should have produced a guaranteed profit ended with a -£13.85 loss.
I need to keep my discipline in future to build the bankroll, but still have a 3 figure profit in less than a week.
I will be out an and about with my daughter tomorrow, so no trading.
Missed Opportunity
When I woke up I rushed into the trading chair, but had missed the first 30 minutes of the Birmingham v Derby clash.
With the scoreline at 0-0 I had missed a big opportunity to use my system to further increase my bankroll.
I have had a very little dabble and am sitting on an all green position (£1.24 under 2.5, £1.69 over 2.5 goals).
So a little unplanned sleep has cost me £10-£15 guaranteed profit, never mind at least my daughter is happy and safely tucked up in bed
Thursday, 8 March 2007
Come on!!
Hope I have some followers, but if not I will take the profits myself.
I have to be a dad for the next few days, so trading/updates will be light.
Come on the green
Thursday Summary
I am after £1000 for a summer holiday with my daughter, but am enjoying my trading on Betfair more than anything.
Bizarrely this blog is making me more disciplined than I have ever been before
This time next year I could be a millionaire!
Trading Update
I dodged the carnage in the Newcastle game thanks to 5 pints (only cost me £17.60)
The Spurs game went exactlt to plan, I couldn't have written it better myself. a Spurs win and Steed notching gives a huge profit of £91.20.
With a weekend of Fatherhood awaiting me I will be struggling to uddate for the nexy few days.
Good luck to all fellow travellers
Robbie Keane
All logic has been thrown out of the window tonight and Paulie the Punter is back.
Will report back later, but I have done very well tonight.
Holiday..it would be so nice...Disneyland here we come
What a night
I am all in green on the match result, worst result is £30.19 for the draw or Braga win.
Still waiting for the Steed profit to hit my account and the over 2.5 goals.
I have no idea what is going on, but think I will be +£40 minimum come the end of the night.
Steeeeeeed
Spurs winning comfortably and the little belgian Malbranque has struck.
Bankroll is growing rapidly. Hope you were were on
System holds up
I'm all in green £7.12 under 2.50 goals and £11.38 over 2.5 goals.
Still well involved with Spurs who are by the better team. Need a win by Spurs to turn my day around
Come on Spurs
£88.36 if they win the game, surely it is a guarantee, they are playing a team like Rotherham.
Strategy is working, but random drunk bets are not good.
Come on Spurs
Trading Update
£7.12 under 2.5 goals and £11.38 over 2.5 goals. Strategy is still working
I still have a couple of bets running, surely its only a matter of time before Spurs win this game?
Will abuse my bankroll tonight in the belief that Spurs will win
Spurs a shoo in?
But I fancy Spurs quite strongly.
The inclusion of Steed Malbranque is a big plus for the Londoners. The little Belgian was a magician in the black & white of Fulham and is yet to show his true colours at Spurs, but I expect him to have a big influence tonight. (£8 to score at any time @6.20)
With Lennon and Berbatov included in the starting 11, I expect the in form Spurs to do the business. (£15 back @ 2.46)
Given that I am slightly over the limit (ahem!) I have now risked the rest of my bank on my normal trading strategy - under 2.5 goals (liabilty 55.24)
The first big test
Having had a small involvement in the Newcastle game last night, tonight I got sucked into an after work drinking session.
I was itching to get home and put my trading strategy into action, but 4-1 to the Toon at half time was a big shock
So for the 1st time I am in red (-£17.60) on the night. It could have been so much worse!
5 pints and I have just cracked open a bottle of wine, there are some danger signs for the Braga v Spurs game later.
I'm still playing with profit, but need to come through tonight unscathed.
Thankfully I missed out on total carnage
Wednesday, 7 March 2007
Uefa Cup Bonanza on Thursday
Having had an early look at the prices on the over/under 2.5 goals markets, I have broken with my system slightly and have risked all of my profits so far on 2 early trades.
Firstly I have layed over 2.5 goals in the Newcastle game for a total liability of £17.60 @ 1.88. Very surprised at the price as Alkmaar are a decent side and I expect a tight 1st leg. Hopefully the price will be nearer to 2.00 (evens) by kick off. I may wade in again tomorrow if there is any value left
Secondly, I have backed over 2.5 goals in the Spurs game £15 @2.6o. If past experience is anything to go by, that price should shorten considerably in the run up to kick off. I also quite fancy Spurs to do well and think there will be goals.
Wednesday Summary
Its not often Arsene Wenger is open to criticism, and hindsight is a great thing, but playing 2 teenagers Fabregas and Denilson in the centre of midfield backfired
The Gunners lacked physical presence and the protection that Glberto offers in the engine room was sorely missed.
Arsenal v PSV - Trading Update
Under 2.5 goals =+£8.07, Over 2.5 goals = +£10.03
The system is working quite nicely with small and regular returns.
Next stage is to grow my bankroll and also trial multiple matches as Man U v Lille and Milan v Celtic would also have worked tonight.
I am now about 3% of the way to my target of £1000 and a holiday with my daughter courtesy of Betfair. Come on!
Arsenal v PSV
And it should be a tense affair. Arsenal have developed a terrible habit of conceding first this season and if they do so tonight they will have to strike 3 times to progress.
With the game on a knife edge, I fancy a tight 1st half so will be employing my strategy of laying under 2.5 goals (price seems to have consolidated at 2.28) and getting out in the first 20-25 minutes.(will risk c.£70)
Liability £57.40 @ average odds of 2.27
Trading lessons learnt
Having watched the Arsenal v PSV market this evening you could back over 2.5 goals @ 2.40 and lay @ 2.42 when I first looked.
In the last 15 minutes the price has been driven down, you can now back @ 2.24 and lay at 2.26.
Interesting that I could have nicked 6% just by backing early and laying off ,before a ball has even been kicked!
So I am considering a little tweak to my strategy. I will keep you posted on developments
Tuesday, 6 March 2007
Arts & Crafts
So I got the chance to spend most of the day with my daughter Mia.
Having spent 6 hours with her on Sunday in the small confines of my flat I decided that we needed an activity to save me further cleaning (I hate cleaning!)
We tried a little arts & craft place in Chiswick http://www.art4fun.co.uk/ and spent about an hour painting a ceramic princess (from Disney).
You can't fault the logic of a 3 year old - when I questioned her decison to paint the hair red she came back with "some people put colour in their hair dad, so it could be red"
And when she accidently splodged red paint on the face, she just laughed and said "look Dad she's got a rash"
The place is pretty good (probably more suited to older children), and their are a lot of objects to paint.
Fairly expensive though (£5.95 per painter and then you pay for what you paint). So I spent £17.95 for an hours fun.
Another downside for me is that it takes 5 days to fire and glaze your work of art and you have to go and pick it up.
On Fire...
As mentioned in my last post I backed Barca at HT (£8 @ 3.15). When Eidur Gudjohnsen struck I layed £15 @ 1.29 to lock in a profit of £12.35.
That gets added to the £5.30 profit locked in before HT by trading on under 2.5 goals.
So a daily profit of £17.65.
HT Trading Update
I'm now sitting on an all green position +£5.70 under 2.5 goals, +£13.79 over 2.5 goals. So the system has come through 2 nights of trading with small gains.
I haven't quite been hitting my target margins as yet for 2 reasons.
I am trading far too early on the matches - there seems to be a lot of backers of over 2.5 goals in the run up to the match which tends to drive down the laying price by 2%-3% in the run up to the match.
With a small bankroll and little margin for error I have been closng my positions to early (basically I have been bottling it at the first sign of profits).
I would expect Barca to come on strong in the 2nd half, and they look good value at 3.15 to win the game tonight (£8 back)
Liverpool v Barcelona
I have layed under 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.13 (total liability of -£71.14).
Liverpool have been solid at Anfield all season and I expect Benitez to take a cautious approach tonight especially in the early stages.
Whilst Barcelona do pose a big threat, especially with the return to fitness of Samuel Eto I can't see them piercing the Liverpool defence in the early stages. So hopefully within the first 20 minutes I will be able to get out for a smallish profit (c.10%-20%) and then sit back and enjoy what should be a cracking match.
I will update progress later tonight
Virgin Media
His Virgin Media brand have recently taken over my cable operator NTL and lost out to Sky in a piece of negotiating brinkmanship. The outcome is that they have managed to lose some key channels like Sky One and Sky Sports News from their programming.
Whatever the rights or wrongs of the dispute I was a bit taken aback by the hypocrisy of their holding message that appears on the channels that they refused to pay for..
Thanks to Sky, some of your basic channesl, like Sky One and Sky News are no longer available.
We believe that Sky want to limit our choice, that's why they're removing their channels from Freeview,too.
At a time when Sky are taking content away.....
Virgin Media is:
- Standing up for consumers
- Making sure you get a better deal
- And giving you more
What a load of old pony that is - I'm paying the same amount for less channels, how can they say that is giving me more?
Monday, 5 March 2007
Trading Update
I finished trading the match after about 30 minutes in an all green position, so Neil Mellor's strike just before half time had no impact on my position.
Early chances for both sides and good saves by Lonerghan (Preston) and Davis (Southampton) made me nervous, so I started trading out in small chunks as soon as I was in profit.
I am now in a profitable position (all green) regardless of the outcome (+£7.60* if under 2.5 goals, £+6.38* if over 2.5 goals) - *net of commission
So my system is underway and off to a successful start with some small gains. Still a long way to go to reach my target of £1000 for a summer holiday but I like the idea of small and regular returns mounting up over a long period.
No Early Goals - Please!
So far I have layed under 2.5 goals @ 2.23(average odds) for £58 (liability of 71.44).
The plan is to get out early in the game by backing over 2.5 goals at 2.45 and bigger prices as the game pans out.
I'm hoping to make an average of between 10%-20% across a large number of trades using this system.
I will update my progress later tonight
To text or not to text?
I have managed one date so far this year which was totally nerve wracking and ruined my 5 day abstinence from cigarettes.
But the time has come for me to start being more active and actually trying to find someone that I can actually have soem fun with.
My strategy so far has been to drink as much as possible and go out and hope for the best. As you can imagine this has been a spectacular failure.
It has only taken me about a year, but last week I finally decided that I needed a change of approach.
After reading through some advice online the common theme that came through was that women liked confidence (oh and someone who was not falling over and slurring).
So on Friday I went out trying to exude confidence. Accompanied by 2 younger work colleagues who both quite fancy their chances with the ladies I was determined to put in a good showing, and at least speak to some women.
Instead of standing on the sidelines power drinking I decided to get involved early, and almost got tagged by a rather large (ok she was massive) blonde in the first bar we were in, but despite the urgings of my mates I managed to dodge that bullet.
The confident routine seemed to be working and a couple of bars later and in a notorious cattle market - sorry club -I somehow managed to get a bit of slap and tickle with a petite Malaysian 'girl' (she told me outside the club that she was actually 40!) but she looked younger with my beer goggles on.
The worrying thing was that she texted me early on Saturday morning (surely too keen?), and whilst I controlled my alcohol intake slightly, by 2.00am I was still half cut?
I am totally clueless on the etiquette of this sort of thing. Should I text back?
Trading or Betting?
The plan is to turn my £100 bankroll into a summer holiday for me and my daughter. So I am looking to make c.£1000 in 4 months.
My 'system' is very basic, I lay under 2.5 goals in most live football matches and then get out after 10 or 15 minutes for a profit of betweem 10%-20% of my initial stake.
With a lot of luck, discipline and good money management I hope to build my bankroll up to a decent level, so that a small % profit is wothwhile in real terms.
I started messing around with this last week but typically the first time I put my plan into action was during the goalfest at Upton Park (West Ham 3-4 Spurs) and I got burnt.
I did however get out of jail thanks to the longest odds winner of my life. With Spurs 3-2 down with 4 minutes to go I backed them at 131.00 for £2. When they equalised I layed £10 off at 15.00 and still netted a 3 figure profit.
From now on I will be regularly updating you on my progress as I trade my way to my holiday, and if I can work out how I will publish my P&L statement to back this up
Sunday, 4 March 2007
Introductions
Hopefully this will be an entertaining and informative read for anyone who may stumble across this chronicle.
First things first, let's start with some introductions (this is the boring bit)
After an acrimonious marital split and a prolonged and vicious custody battle (more of which later) I am now an eligible bachelor (open to debate!) and part time single Dad.
I am in my mid 30's and there is still a bit of life in the old dog yet, if my performance in Watford on Friday night is anything to go by.
I have a full time job (mainly 9.00am-5.00pm) with a decent salary and in the aftermath of my marriage breakdown I moved into a rented flat that is just a 2 minute walk from my place of work.
The benefits of this scenario are immense. On a good day I can be home by 5.05pm and on a bad morning (there have been a few of them) I can get out of bed at 8.30am. I can also regularly go home for lunch.
The main problem I have is that with so much time on my hands since my marriage split (about 2 years ago) I have spent most of the time on destructive pastimes - the holy trinity of gambling, drinking and smoking. (I will sprinkle the details of some of the more interesting adventures from this period throughout this blog)
The plan is to update regularly on a wide range of topics and also keep you updated on my escapades as I try to find wealth, love and happiness.