Saturday 31 March 2007

Rollercoaster Day

A disastrous start to the day with everything going against me in the Liverpool v Arsenal match earlier was more than made up for by backing Chelsea late on to beat Watford (thank you Kalou).

A small profit on the day so far +£6.95, with the Spanish double header to come.

Posts have been a bit thin on the ground in recent days as I have been setting up another blog with a more appropriate title http://footballtrader.blogspot.com.

My trading updates will now be available at the new blog as Paul the Daddy will concentrate more on the trials and tribulations of being a single Dad.

Wednesday 28 March 2007

England 3 -0 Andorra

Well any readers of this blog would have seen that 3-0 was the predicted scoreline.

A better 2nd half performance illuminated by Steve Gerrard's 2 goals gave England the minimum win.

Stevie G, Kieron Dyer,David Nugent and also Jermaine Defoe all come out of the game with some credit.

Not the best night of trading with a loss of -£19.03. One more goal would have turned the night around, but at least McClaren will get untold stick in the morning.

Half Time Update

"You're not fit to wear the shirt", "What a load of rubbish". The travelling England fans have made their feelings known tonight and tomorrows tabloids will undoubtedly seal McClaran's fate

Andorra 0 - 0 England at Half Time and McClaren should just hand in his notice now.

At least that smug grin that has been plastered over his face for the last few years should be permanently wiped from his ruddy face.

Looks like England's ineptitude will cost me a few quid tonight, but I would pay that money to get the FA to admit that they made a complete balls up with the appointment of McClaren.

Hopefully the media witchhunt will not just stop with the manager though, the whole recruitment process was a joke and McClaren's main supporter Brian Barwick should also be out on his ear.

I'm still sure England will do enough to win the game, but whatever the result now it is game over for McClaren.

Update

20 minutes gone and the boos have already started. Steve McClaren is a wa**er is the chant ringing round the stadium.

1 shot on target from Stevie Gerrard is the sum total of a lot of possession.

Still think I will have a little patience as I think if England score once more will follow..

What a shame for McDonut

Lampard injury lifts England

So at last Lampard is dropped from the England team - albeit caused by injury.

A midfield with Hargreaves and Gerrard has the balance and dynamism to become the fulcrum of England's challenge to qualify for Euro 2008.

Fat Frank may find it hard to get back back into the side.

I can't see anything but a comfortable England win and I am going with a back of over 3.5 goals at 1.55 with a cover bet on a 2-0 and 3-0 win

Will update later

England Expects

England's fixture list could not have been kinder to the hapless Steve McClaren.

Andorra would struggle to hold their own in the Conference, and England will snap up the 3 points tonight without too much trouble.

But even a comfortable win by 4 or 5 goals will do little to repair the damage to McClaren's reputation.

The FA would do well to heed the mood of the nation and the media and start making plans to replace the smug, bald denier.

Trading opportunities on the game are fairly limited, but I would expect England to grind out a win in the region of 3-0 or 4-0.

From yesterday I have a small all green position on the W.Indies v Australia super 8 match. I can't see the hosts getting anywhere near the Aussies total.

Monday 26 March 2007

100 Not Out

The Daddy is back.

A small cash flow problem has meant that I have had to withdraw most of the money from my Betfair account so have missed a few days of trading.

I managed to find a spare £15 to play with tonight and layed Oxford @1.24 when they went 2-1 up thanks to a horror show from Dagenham keepet Tony Roberts.

A disputed lated goal from the Football League bound Daggers has give me a profit of £62.48 on the day.

This is my 100th post of this blog and the profits are still rolling in..

Sunday 25 March 2007

McClaren Out!

Surprise,surprise, another evening of utter dross served up by Steve McClaren's England.

As I mentioned on 21st March England failing to win was a great bet

For me England are the lay of the season against Israel @ 1.89, and I may have a little piece of that nearer the time.

Just one look at the England full backs Phil Neville (who should have been bombed out of the England set up after Euro 2000) and Jamie Carrgaher was enough to convince me that it would be another night of suffering for fans of the National team.

Add to that Andy Johnson up front, flat track bully Frank Lampard and square pegs in round holes a 0-0 was probably the best that could be hoped for.

The FA need to act after the Andorra game and admit that the appointmet of McClaren was a huge mistake and get rid.

If they don't, England fans are in serious danger of having nobody to support in the Euro 2008 finals

Thursday 22 March 2007

Trading Update

Well what a shocker. I learnt my lesson tonight not to trade on events I know nothing about.

I tried to nick a few quid on Taylor and as Scholten started to fly I was all over the place staring at some big losses.

Ended up taking a loss of -£89.45 on the day.

Oh well it had to happen at some stage and I will have to take on the chin my biggest loss to date.

Still well up on the month, but need to be more selective with my trading in future

Taylor v Scholten

One game left in tonight's Premier League darts.

The Power is very short odds to see off the Tripod, but hopefully I can nick a few quid on that match.

I have just had a little mess around with the matches so far and have a c£10.00 profit to keep the bankroll ticking over.

Will give a final update later tonight

Darts

I am having a good look at the Premier League Darts (Priestley v Jenkins) before getting heavily involved.

It is always good to get some idea of how the markets move and the level of volatility before wading in.

Priestley is 4-2 up at the break, will let you know how I get on

Wednesday 21 March 2007

Daily Update (+£26.48)

Another reasonable profit today given the lack of decent events to trade on.

I will have to start to diversify my trading into other Sports otherwise the growth in my bankroll is going to slow as the football season comes to an end.

I have my daughter this weekend so there won't be many opportunites for me to trade.

For me England are the lay of the season against Israel @ 1.89, and I may have a little piece of that nearer the time.

Come on the Shaymen

Halifax are level and the equaliser gives me some more green on the night.

They are looking more likely to go on and win it now and are overpriced at 6.40 to take all 3 points. I have had a small back at that price.

21 hours since my last cigarette

Gone in again

I must be a glutton for punishment, I have had another trade on the Halifax v Oxford game.

I have backed over 1.5 goals, so need a 2nd goal in the last 30 minutes. Not really sure where it is going to come from given the quality on show.

Fingers crossed

Trading Update

Not even the appearance of 2 former Fulham characters Rufus Brevett and Gus Uhlenbeek can tempt me to sit through the Halifax v Oxford game, it is truly shocking.

I have greened out my position on over 2.5 goals and will probably end with a daily profit of c.£15.00.

I'm finding it quite hard to concentrate as I am 20 hours without a cigarette (not that i'm counting or anything) and will see how long I can manage this time around. My best abstinence of 2007 so far has been 4 days.

Halifax v Oxford

I'm going to have a small involvement in tonight's Conference match, with a lay of over 2.5 goals.

The price has been on the drift for the last few minutes so just want it to settle down before I enter the market.

I don't fancy risking a large chunk of my bankroll just because I am bored, so I am going to limit my liabilities to a reasonable amount.

With Sr Lanka cruising to victory in the cricket I have C.£7.00 profit in the bag and hope to add to that later

Another Quiet Night

Conference Football is not high on my list of exciting events but Halifax v Oxford live from The Shay is a welcome relief to the International break.

Will probably have a small trade on the match which I will detail later this evening.

I have also bought (hopefully) a couple of quid in the cricket WC by backing Sri Lanka at a prohibitive price.

Tuesday 20 March 2007

Nothing to trade on

I really hate the break that we are forced to put up with every time their is a round of International matches.

In the week leading up to the game there is invaribly nothing worthwhile trading on and then McClaren's England serve up utter dross.

This evening there is literally nothing to trade on (unless you fancy betting on Speedway or Greyhounds) and both World Cup cricket matches look one sided affairs.

With money making opportunities thin on the ground, I will be trying to explain my trading strategies to any novices out there.

More to follow later

Monday 19 March 2007

The secret of my success?

Just a small collection of my Rothmans Football Yearbooks which hopefully are giving an edge to my football trading on Betfair.




I received my first "Bible of Football" at the age of 6 and I haven't looked back since!




In the pre-internet age these tomes were priceless if you wanted to find out any statistics.





Many of my recent trades have been based on current knowledge but i'm sure I will be dipping into this valuable resource as I try to make my first £1000 profit

Trading Update

Well a night where I was always up against it saw me get out of jail by riding the goals markets on the Spurs v Chelsea match and keeping faith with Man Utd.

After recent successes a small profit of +£16.64 is not the greatest, but it keeps the total bank ticking over and keeps the winning run intact.

With the international break kicking in, there is a serious lack of events to trade on this week, so it could be quiet on the trading front.

Half Time Update

Not the best of 1st halves for my trading tonight, a lack of discipline has seen me get involved in a number of markets across 2 games being shown simultaneously.

Hopefully events will go my way and net me a small profit, but I have a bit of a bad feeling about tonight.

I went away from my normal strategy of laying over 2.5 goals in the Spurs v Chelsea game and have been punished by a 0-0 scoreline at HT.

I have a small profit on the draw and a Spurs win, but will lose c. £20.00 if Chelsea win in 90 minutes.

I did lay over 2.5 goals in the Man U game and have guaranteed a profit on that market of c.£20.00.

However I have also got a relatively large liability if Man Utd fail to win in 9o minutes.

So I need a Man Utd goal and a Spurs goal early in the 2nd half

FA Cup Double Header

2 cracking cup replays tonight, and I will be majoring on the Spurs v Chelsea game on BBC 1.

So far I have backed the draw at 3.55 for £26.00 and also layed Chelsea to qualify at 1.56 (liability of £28.00).

I think Spurs have enough attacking prowess to trouble Chelsea and have already beaten them at WHL in the Premiership.

I got stung at Old Trafford on Saturday when United steamrollered an anaemic Bolton side, but I think Middlesboro have a bit more about them and can withstand the ineveitable early onslaught that will come their way.

So I have layed over 2.5 goals @ 1.87 - liability of £87.00.

Would be happy to get out with a small profit tonight as anything can happen in the FA Cup

Rules of the Game

After my successes in the first 2 weeks of trading, I am considering putting some rules in place that help limit my risks in future.

Money management is a key facet of successful trading and so far I have been pretty loose with my bankroll. With some good trades and a large dose of luck I have managed to grow my profits much quicker than expected.

However, I don't want to risk a large proportion of my hard earned gains as at some stage I am bound to run into a bad run of results.

I need to investigate money management rules that other successful traders have used to grow their profits, but think a maximum trade of 25% of my available bank will be my starting point.

Another rule that I am implementing is to only keep £500 in my account at anyone time. Any funds over and above £500 will be withdrawn into a seperate holding account.

Sunday 18 March 2007

Daily Update (+£114.45)

Another day, another dollar.

Some solid trading on the Spanish double header has brought me another 3 figure profit on the day.

Things are beginning to go ridiculously well as my dreams of going on a nice summer holiday are looking more realistic.

I have just finished my first 2 weeks of part time trading and have made a grand total of +£523.79.

If I can maintain my current performance I could reach my initial £1000 target by Easter.

FA Cup 6th round replays tomorrow and the nightmare of watching Steve McClaren's England on Wednesday await.

0-0 at Half Time

Well the weekend goes from strength to strength.

I have an all green position on the Sevilla v Celta game the over/under 2.5 goals market(+£22.00 whatever the outcome).

Watching the 1st half it is surely only a matter of time before Sevilla break the deadlock, they are still an odds on shot at the moment and don't fancy backing them at that price.

Will keep an eye on it though as I think there is some more money to be made

Updates coming your way later

Sevilla v Celta up next

Being a single bloke definitely has its advantages.

Having quaffed a bottle of white wine and a curry whilst trading on 2 live football matches already today, I am now being served up another game from Seville.

I have kept faith with my system of laying over 2.5 goals and hope to trade out early for a decent profit.

So far today I am in profit to the tune of +£49.24, and hope to add another few quid to the bankroll in the last game of the evening.

Will update later

Hola

Well my patience has paid off with Madrid.

Inspired by 2nd half sub Robinho a comfortable 2-0 victory has helped me to some further profits.

I'm lookng at a c.£39.00 win on the match which keeps the bankroll ticking over.

I've had a great run of results during my first 2 weeks of trading, either I am very lucky or I am bloody good at this!

Don't think I will be able to maintain the type of profits that I have generated so far, but am confident that if I keep my discipline I can make a couple of hundred quid a month fairly easily.

Half Time Update

The nerves are beginning to kick in now as Real Madrid v Gimnastic is still goalless at Half Time

I have lumped on Madrid at short prices and still think they will get the 3 points, but didn't expect them to make me wait this long.

Hope to report back on a profitable evening later on

Lumping on Madrid

With the power of a larger bankroll I have lumped on Real Madrid at short odds to try and buy some additional profit.

Up against 10 men they must surely have enough to win the match.

Will update later

Late Goal saves the day (again)

A late goal from Andy Johnson has dug me out of a hole and given me a small profit on the day so far.

My bet on over 2.5 goals never looked likely to come in so I got involved in the match odds and layed the draw. The late goal ensured that the start of trading tonight was profitable. (+£9.65)

A Spanish double header awaits with Real Madrid v Gimnastic up first.

I have layed over 2.5 goals at 1.87 (liability of £26.10) which looks like a bad decision as the massive underdogs have had a player sent off after just 5 minutes.

Just a small anecdote about my daughter, I got a call just now from my estranged wife asking me if I had promised that we would all have a Chinese takeway together tonight - my daughter Mia kept talking about it.

The little lump is only 3 but is already an arch manipulator!

Goals Please

I have had a small interest in the over 2.5 goals market. A £20 back @3.85

Hoping for a goal before Half Time to lock in a profit

Will update later

Missed Opportunities

Fatherly duties took precedence over trading today, and typically my system of laying over 2.5 goals would have been highly profitable today.

With Villa v Liverpool ending 0-0 and no goals at Goodison so far, I could have grown my bankroll even further.

I am going to have a good look at the Everton v Arsenal game before getting involved.

Unfortunately I have to report a -£22.00 loss on the cricket last night when Ireland sensationally dumped Pakisatn out of the World Cup.

Will update any trades later

Saturday 17 March 2007

Best result yet

Well I fancied West Ham to get something at Ewood Park, and their controversial victory has turned my day around.

I made a profit of +£164.53 on the game to take my daily profit to +£174.67 .

A fantastic run of results means that I am almost half way to my target of winning £1,000 for a holiday within 2 weeks of starting.

I am keeping a watching brief on the Barcelona match and will update if I get invloved.

Blowing Bubbles

A controversial second goal for West Ham has given me a big guaranteed profit on this evening's match.

I had already backed West Ham and then layed Blackburn at 1.28 after they opened the scoring.

A nice 3 figure profit on the game is coming my way

Full details to follow

Profits at last

With no early goals at Ewood Park I have been able to trade out for a guaranteed profit of c.£20.00.

Instead of counting the money I have backed the Hammers @ 5.40 for £25.00

Will update later

Blackburn v West Ham

I am sticking with my system of laying over 2.5 goals in this match.

Liability of £168.00 @ 2.05

I also have a feeling that West Ham will put in a performnace today and may get involved with them as the game pans out

Trading Update

After a shocking start to the day, I have managed to claw myself back into profit, mainly thanks to some solid trading on the 6 Nations games.

My daily position as of 5.00pm is detailed below

Horses +£3.05
Rugby Union +£35.15
Football -£28.06

Total +£10.14

Update

Well after a damage limitation exercise I have managed to lose -£38.61 so far today, but have a £10.11 profit coming back on the Italy v Ireland match.

Can't really complain about how things have panned out so far, and hopefully will have some more success during the rest of the day

Fight Back

Well the fight back has started and I have a small all Green position on the over 4.5 market (c.£9.00) whatever the outcome.

I have had a small interest in the Italy v Ireland 6 Nations rugby. Layed Ireland(-11.5 points handicap) at odds of 1.56 - liability of £11.20.

Just hope the Italians can keep it tight

Over 4.5 goals

I'm a glutton for punishment so have layed over 4.5 goals @ 1.78 for a liability of £62.40.

Just hope Man U take their foot off the pedal and help me limit the damage

Bad Start

Well not the best of starts to St Patrick's day.

I traded out a small portion of my liability on over 2.5 goals but still have to take a fairly big loss of -£46.55 on the chin.

My bet on the draw has also gone down and I have a -£21.20 loss on a Man U win.

So looking at almost a £70.00 loss on the game.

What has happened to Bolton? They look awful and could get well and truly hammered.

I will have a look at some of the other in play markets to see if I can limit the damage.

Will report back later

Man Utd v Bolton

United have a mini injury crisis ahead of today's Premplus clash with Bolton and they may struggle to unlock Bolton in the early stages at Old Trafford

With Saha and Solskjaer both out and Larsson back in Sweden, they look a bit short up front, and more importantly Paul Scholes is suspended.

I have layed over 2.5 goals @ 1.89 liability £75.65 (the price has already moved slighly and can now be backed at 1.92).

I have also backed the draw @ 4.50 for £25.00

Friday 16 March 2007

Happy Birthday to Me!

36 today..

Will no doubt end up in a pub tonight having a few beers, so will probably give trading a miss today, in preparaton for a bonanza on Saturday.

With 3 live football matches to trade on, 2 WC cricket matches and the climax of the Six nations it should be a busy day in the trading chair.

And what of the Cheltenham Gold Cup today? Can Kauto Star save the punters from another bashing? I will be keeping a watching brief, but fancy Ruby Walsh to guide the Star home

Thursday 15 March 2007

PR Disaster for Betfair

Well what a disaster, i'm staring at a guaranteed profit of £30.00 whatever the outcome after some clever (or lucky) trading on the cricket, and the match ends in a tie.

After speaking to a Betfair customer service agent (are they all Australian?) they tell me that all bets are void.

What a joke!

The guy on the phone played the sympathy card for Betfair saying that they will make no money/commission on the match either and that I should have read the rules before trading on that market.

Well personally I think they should offer the draw as an option to back and lay which would avoid this ridiculous situation.

I'm only a small player so am not that upset, but there will be some big traders who have been stung by this big time tonight.(and some people who will have got out of jail)

All in all a bad night for Betfair, who have let down their punters and scored a PR og in the early stages of the cricket world cup

Drama

An incredible finish to the cricket between Zimbabwe and Ireland.

With the Africans neeing 9 runs from the final over and 3 runs from the final 2 balls, the game somehow ended in a tie.

Not at all sure what will happen with my trades, I have £28.50 profit if Ireland win and £30.97 if Zimbabwe win. What the feck happens if their is a tie?

It wasn't an option to bet on so hopefully i haven't done my money?

More profits

Come on the Irish.

I have guaranteed a profit regardless of the result in the cricket, so now I can start cheering the Fatherland.

Can't believe the Irish can play cricket and be competitive against Zimbabwe who are not the worst team in the world by any means.

Whatever happens I am going to add c.£10.00 to my profits.

The way my luck is going it is a shame I have run out of events to trade on tonight

Zimbabwe v Ireland

I have got involved late in the Cricket World Cup, backing Zimbabwe at a skinny price to beat the Irish.

£64.00 bet at 1.22 to win £13.38.

A bit risky seeing as I know very little about cricket, but things looking good so far.

Will update later

An Early Birthday Present

Thank you to my fellow Betfair traders who read tonights game spectacularly wrong and gave me an early birthday present for tomorrow.

As I mentioned earlier I couldn't believe that I could lay Newcastle to qualify at 1.59 at Half Time, when they were second best for most of the evening. Alkmaar were by far the better team all night and looked one of the best bets that I have seen in my first 10 days of trading

I filled my boots as much as my meagre bankroll allowed and then traded out once the 2nd goal went in.

The final results of the night saw me make £+70.19 on Alkmaar to qualify and +£10.35 on under 2.5 goals giving me a daily profit of +£80.54.

After 10 days trading I am sitting on a profit of +£256.67

Easy pickings?

Well I am guaranteed a minimum profit of c.£40.00 on the night, but would expect to be getting nearer the £80.00 mark.

Alkmaar now look too far to short at 1.20 to qualify.

Newcastle need to score to survive and have plenty of time to get on the scoresheet now that he shackles have been lifted.

I have a guaranteed £75 profit if Alkmaar qualify, but am going to build my position around Newcastle getting that vital away goal.

Will settle for a £60.00 profit on the Dutch side and a 3 figure profit if the Geordies pull off the great escape

Here we go

As I suspected Alkmaar are in the box seat at 2-0 up.

All in green on the number of goals and Alkmaar to qualify. Should be looking at a decent profit tonight.

Just need to decide how to maximise my profits now.

Will update later

Alkmaar v Newcastle

Difficult game to read this one.

I could get out for a profit on under 2.5 goals as things stand and have reduced my liability to £34.46. will leave it for 5 minutes or so into the 2nd half before closing out my position.

The market that is interesting me most at the moment is the To Qualify market. Newcastle are available to lay at 1.59, and I already have a strong profitable position on the Dutch side to qualify.

Personally I fancy Alkmaar to score again and think that I am in a strong position to make a decent profit tonight.

Only time will tell, will report back shortly

1-0

Game on, Shota Arveladze has opened the scoring early on.

My under 2.5 bet is not looking so good, but Alkmaar to qualify should offset any major problems.

Will try and update as the game goes on, but have to keep a close eye on the trading screen

Going Dutch

Well just managed to escape from the pub in time for the Alkmaar v Newcastle game.

The shortest price I have ever seen on 2.5 goals was available to lay (1.63) - I have a liability of £63.00.

I have also layed the Geordies to qualify with a liability of c.£33

Will update later - and by the way my cake was demolished!

Wednesday 14 March 2007

Half Century completed

As I am getting into the spirit of the cricket World Cup I thought it was time to celebrate my first 50 posts on this blog.

My trading has been jogging along slowly with a very reasonable £176.00 profit so far.

Big thanks must go to Daryl Murphy of Sunderland and Steed Malbranque (one of the finest talents ever to grace Craven Cottage) who have both kept this show on the road when I have been staring down the barrel of big losses.

In amongst the day to day trading, I have some small positions in a couple of long term markets.

I still have a sneaky suspicion that Chelsea are not out of the race for the Premiership.

Man U have some key players missing through injury and have been scraping results in the last 4-5 games, whilst Chelsea continue to grind out wins with their injury list beginning to clear up.

The visit of Bolton on Saturday is not a foregone conclusion.

At the other end of the table, I still can't believe that the Hammers will meekly bow out without a fight. They performed well against Spurs last time out and could be good value to take something from ther trip to Blackburn on Saturday (considering laying Blackburn at 1.78).

Hopefully by the time I celebrate my 1st century of posts, my profits will be touching the £300 mark

Tell all the boys you know

..Newcastle are going to Glasgow. Or so the Toon army would have you believe.

A tough looking trip to Alkmaar faces Glenn Roeder's side on Thursday night, and despite winning the home leg 4-2 the tie is far from finished.

After trading on the 1st leg I already have a small positive position on either side to qualify, but if the Dutch side score first tomorrow it could be a tough night for Newcastle.

Alkmaar are available at a shade of odds on (1.97) to win the match and I may be tempted to get involved in this tomorrow.

Cake Revealed!



Well here it is, the infamous cake that I have been going on about.

I haven't tasted it yet, so we will see how we get on tomorrow.

Not sure if I am ready for Masterchef yet, but it smells ok and doesn't look that bad.

Evening Round Up

Not the greatest of nights, which ended with a small loss of -£5.89.

Was lookng at a break even position before backing over 1.5 goals in the Man City v Chelsea game. Unfortunately no late goals in that game tonight and lost £20,00 on the trade.

Managed to salvage a nerve wracking £12.80 saver on no more goals on the Spurs v Braga game after surviving a strong penalty claim when Malbranque was scythed down in the box. Amazingly the ref decided that the magical little Belgian had dived and showed him yellow.

At least I have made my cake!

More goals in Manchester?

If Man City have anything about them they have to try and get something from tonights match and they could leave themselves exposed at the back.

Over 1.5 goals is available to back at 1.83 and I have gone in with a £17.00 trade to try and turn the night into a profitable one.

Not really trading, but think it is decent value

Firing Blanks

After an evening that was going exactly to plan, a penalty for Chelsea and an og by Spurs have put me in the disppointing position of break even.

I have an all green position on the Chelsea game (+12.35 if less than 2.5 goals and +£7.66 if more than 2 goals).

The Spurs game was looking great until Huddlestone flicked a header into his own net. Having layed under 2.5 goals at 1.88, I was trading out for a comfortable profit with a back price approaching 2.50.

I've now realised an -£11.03 loss. on the game.

What a player Berbatov is by the way, both his goals tonight have been pure quality

Spurs v Braga

After a 3-2 away win in Portugal, goals are expected a WHL this evening.

I think a lay of under 2.5 goals @1.85 is decent value and have had a little interest (liability £55.25)

Hopefully I can trade out early for a small profit

Man City v Chelsea

Despite the doom and gloom surrounding Man City, they have been pretty tight at home this season and don't score many themselves.

I have therefore layed under 2.5 goals @2.30 with a liability of £84.50.

Chelsea should do enough to grind out another win, but would expect a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline.

Just hope that the under pressure Pearce ensures that it is a cagey opening 20 minutes.

Will update later

Wednesday Update

Should be a busy evening of trading with Man City v Chelsea on Sky and Spurs v Braga on ITV.

I have my daughter coming round tonight for a couple of hours and also have to try and bake a cake at some stage, so it should be fairly hectic

I'm looking to break the £200 profit barrier tonight, and after my lucky escapes yesterday only a small return is required to reach my next milestone.

Will update further when I get time tonight

Tuesday 13 March 2007

Let them eat cake

I have committed to making a cake for one of my work colleagues who is 30 on Thursday. Not sure why I offered as I have only ever made 1 cake before in my life.

No doubt it will get loads of abuse, not least because the girl in question has Tourettes.

Strangely enough none of my other work colleagues seem that keen on tasting my creation.

I'm not quite sure if that is because they doubt my culinary expertise, or because they remember the false allegations made by my ex wife in the aftermath of our marriage breakdown.

Being accused of trying to poison her and my daughter out of the blue, and suffering the indignity of a full scale forensic investigation by Scotland Yard certainly was not the best experience of my life.

After being 100% cleared by the police and having my wife withdraw the allegations in court, I wonder if people are genuinely worried?

Trading Update

After a heartstopping evening where I was consistently in trouble, I have somehow manged to get out of jail with a daily profit of +£27.84.

All the credit must go to Daryl Murphy (my new favourite player), a 2nd half Sunderland substitute who scored a last minue equaliser.

I made a steady start at Cheltenham (+£13.62) mainly thanks to Sublimity who secured Champion Hurdle success in fine style, but my first foray into cricket trading was not great.

Pakistan looked a good thing to chase down an ordinary target set by West Indies, but I was consistently on the wrong side of events and eventually settled for a -£14.76 loss.

As described earlier 3 first half goals at the Stadium of Light got me into a -£60.30 hole, but Murphy's late strike gave me an +£89.30 profit.

So +£27.34 profit on the day and a Total position of +£182.02

COME ON!!

The luck of the Irish strikes!

A last minute goal from Murphy has turned around Sunderland's fortunes and kept me in the game.

Having layed Stoke at half time I went back in another couple of times and was staring at a catatrophic loss that would have wiped out all of my profits in one evening.

I now have a £89.30 profit locked in.

A small loss on the cricket as Pakistan look like failing miserably in chasing down a fairly ordinary total set by West Indies (-£14.76)

I will give a summary of the day when I get my breathe back!

Chasing Losses

Desperately trying to rectify my earlier losses, so have layed Stoke at 2.12 liability of £62.72.

Hoping for a Sunderland goal.

Absolute Carnage

Well it had to happen sooner or later.

A nightmare evening of trading on the Sunderland v Stoke game.

I started with a liability of £94.60 on under 2.5 goals and started trading out in small chunks for what looked like a comfortable profit. With 20 minutes gone things were looking comfortable

Then disaster struck, Darren Ward the Sunderand keeper made a howler to allow Stoke to score first and within 60 seconds Sunderland had equalised. 2 goals in 60 seconds left me looking at a £60.00 loss.

As half time approached I was waiting to review my position during the break when in injury time (they played more than the 2 mins specified) Stoke struck again.

So -£60.30 loss puts a big dent in my profits.

Will try and improve my position in the 2nd half and with some small trades on the cricket.

Cheltenham Update

I picked 3 horses in each race at Cheltenham today and had some small bets.

I managed 3 winners - My Way De Solzen, Sublimity and Gaspara to net a +£13.62 profit on the day.

Would have been £50+ profit had Juveigneur not been touched off on the line by a 50/1 shot in the 4.00pm race.

I have had a little dabble on the Cricket, but am mainly keeping a watching brief to learn how the markets react to wickets and run rates etc.

Looking forward to seeing Sunderland tonight, who I expect to secure an automatic promotion place back to the Premiership. Will be looking at the under 2.5 goals later

Monday 12 March 2007

Good Night

Back to work tomorrow, so it is time to sign off for tonight.

Another good day in the trading chair with a daily profit of +£30.30. Total Trading profits now stand at +£154.18.

Slow and steady progress has been the order of the day in the first 8 days of this blog, but hopefully with my bankroll growing, growth in profits will accelerate in the coming weeks.

With the Cheltenam Festival and Cricket World Cup starting tomorrow there will be plenty of opportunities to trade.

Trading Update

The Burton v Forest Green game is shockingly bad, which is good news for my trading tonight.

Only one real scare in the 1st half which was repelled by 43 year old keeper Kevin Poole in the Burton keeper.

Worst situation is an £11.65 profit, but looking more likely to make £18.12.

Will update exact details later

Burton v Forest Green

Well I couldn't resist wading into the game tonight.

I now have a total liability of £99.64 at average odds of 2.22 (under 2.5 goals), and would be happy to take a £10 profit on the match.

Keeping my fingers crossed that there are no early goals.

Evening Update

Well Sky are serving up a classic tonight, Burton Albion v Forest Green.

I will try and nick a small profit early on by laying under 2.5 goals (currently trading at 2.20). Liability of £24.00 so far.

Not sure if there will be much liquidity on a game like this, so will just tread carefully.

I need to be out of the game in profit by 8.30pm in time for Masterchef goes Large

Horse Trading

I'm on a day off today, so have had a little dabble on the Horses.

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, but I have managed to nick +£9.69 in the first 2 races.

Netherley and Noble Billy both obliged at short odds, and I traded out for a profit before they crossed the winning line.

Think I will bank that and wait for the football tonight before getting involved again.

Sunday 11 March 2007

Spanish Green

Perfect. I guaranteed a decent profit in the Osasuna v Valencia clash after 34 mins of goalless action. (c.£10.00)

5 minutes after closing my position Osasuna have scored from a dubious penalty.

I have logged out of my Betfair account so there is no temptation to carry on trading. Up about £15.00 on the day (exact details to follow).

I desperately need to grow my bankroll as these successes could be transferred into some serious profits if I had more money to play with.

After 1 full week of part time trading and blogging I am sitting on a profit of c£125.00. If I can get anywhere near that figure in the next 2 -3 weeks I will be well on my way to a decent holiday.

Small Profits

Well only small profits on the Plymouth v Watford game (+£6.11 under 2.5 goals).

But some important lessons learnt about trading on a game when an early goal stuffs up your position.

At least it keeps the bankroll ticking over and keeps me on track for my summer holidays!

Have layed under 2.5 goals in the Osasuna v Valencia game @ 2.64 (liability of £82.00)

Trading Update

Well thankfully a 2nd goal has not come in the Plymouth v Watford game so far, so I have managed to trade out for a small guaranteed profit.

Definitely a different way of doing business, had I done nothing after my initial trade I would have been looking at a £60 profit.

However the protection of my bankroll has become a major factor as I don't have any available cash to start again if I lose badly.

Will update later on exact profits, and how trading goes on the Osasuna v Valencia match tonight

Plymouth v Watford

I Missed the start of the game but traded under 2.5 goals farly heavily @ 2.92 (liability of £115.20).

Bouazza's goal for Watford has put me on the backfoot, and at the moment it looks like I will be trading out for a loss.

I went back in a again and layed under 2.5 goals at 1.92 to give me average odds of 2.60

At Half time with odds standing at 2.46 to back over 2.5 goals I could limit my losses now, and have traded some small chunks at average odds 2.16.

I think I will hang on for another 10 minutes and try and get out of jail.

In trouble?

A day that started with sh*t is threatening to end the same way.

After being woken at 6.00am after 4 hours sleep and with a red wine hangover, the last thing you want to hear from your daughter is that she has filled her nappy.

It was touch and go whether I was going to hold onto the contents of my stomach but somehow managed to muddle through.

Thankfully I was unable to trade the Boro v Man Utd and Chelsea v Spurs games and avoided the carnage of high scoring games.

I fancied my chances of nicking a profit on the Blackburn v Man City game, but unfortunately I returned home to darkness (my electricity meter had run out), and by the time I got back I had missed out.

Never mind there was always the Plymouth v Watford game to end the weekend on a high.

Friday 9 March 2007

In the Red

Poor night tonight.

After missing the start of the Birmingham v Derby game I had a very small profit guaranteed (see last post).

When Vine scored just before Half time I started trading under 2.5 goals again, laying @2.54.

The price moved up quickly and I soon was in position with c.£5.00 profit on any outcome.

When McSheffrey got sent off I layed Birmingham at 1.36 for a £19.00 liability, but to be fair Derby never looked like scoring.

So a night that should have produced a guaranteed profit ended with a -£13.85 loss.

I need to keep my discipline in future to build the bankroll, but still have a 3 figure profit in less than a week.

I will be out an and about with my daughter tomorrow, so no trading.

Missed Opportunity

Whilst putting my daughter to bed tonight, I managed to fall alseep on the bed after I finished reading her bed time story.

When I woke up I rushed into the trading chair, but had missed the first 30 minutes of the Birmingham v Derby clash.

With the scoreline at 0-0 I had missed a big opportunity to use my system to further increase my bankroll.

I have had a very little dabble and am sitting on an all green position (£1.24 under 2.5, £1.69 over 2.5 goals).

So a little unplanned sleep has cost me £10-£15 guaranteed profit, never mind at least my daughter is happy and safely tucked up in bed

Thursday 8 March 2007

Come on!!

£122.75 in profit.

Hope I have some followers, but if not I will take the profits myself.

I have to be a dad for the next few days, so trading/updates will be light.

Come on the green

Thursday Summary

Well, what a day....£92.10 up. add that to my previous profits and I am £120+ up in 4 days.

I am after £1000 for a summer holiday with my daughter, but am enjoying my trading on Betfair more than anything.

Bizarrely this blog is making me more disciplined than I have ever been before

This time next year I could be a millionaire!

Trading Update

Well, drinking has served me well tonight.

I dodged the carnage in the Newcastle game thanks to 5 pints (only cost me £17.60)

The Spurs game went exactlt to plan, I couldn't have written it better myself. a Spurs win and Steed notching gives a huge profit of £91.20.

With a weekend of Fatherhood awaiting me I will be struggling to uddate for the nexy few days.

Good luck to all fellow travellers

Robbie Keane

Never been that impressed byRobbie Keane, but after single handedly knocking Fulham out of the FA Cup he has just made me decent money.

All logic has been thrown out of the window tonight and Paulie the Punter is back.

Will report back later, but I have done very well tonight.

Holiday..it would be so nice...Disneyland here we come

What a night

Braga 2-2 Spurs.

I am all in green on the match result, worst result is £30.19 for the draw or Braga win.

Still waiting for the Steed profit to hit my account and the over 2.5 goals.

I have no idea what is going on, but think I will be +£40 minimum come the end of the night.

Steeeeeeed

Hope some people are beginning to follow the legend that is paulthedaddy!

Spurs winning comfortably and the little belgian Malbranque has struck.

Bankroll is growing rapidly. Hope you were were on

System holds up

Despite drinking far too much and betting instead of trading my strategy of under/over2.5 goals is still holding up.

I'm all in green £7.12 under 2.50 goals and £11.38 over 2.5 goals.

Still well involved with Spurs who are by the better team. Need a win by Spurs to turn my day around

Come on Spurs

Not 100% sure how much I am risking, but I well in involved with Spurs now.

£88.36 if they win the game, surely it is a guarantee, they are playing a team like Rotherham.

Strategy is working, but random drunk bets are not good.

Come on Spurs

Trading Update

I may be pissed but there is still green on the screen.

£7.12 under 2.5 goals and £11.38 over 2.5 goals. Strategy is still working

I still have a couple of bets running, surely its only a matter of time before Spurs win this game?

Will abuse my bankroll tonight in the belief that Spurs will win

Spurs a shoo in?

Must admit I don't know much about Braga apart from they have a few Brazilians.

But I fancy Spurs quite strongly.

The inclusion of Steed Malbranque is a big plus for the Londoners. The little Belgian was a magician in the black & white of Fulham and is yet to show his true colours at Spurs, but I expect him to have a big influence tonight. (£8 to score at any time @6.20)

With Lennon and Berbatov included in the starting 11, I expect the in form Spurs to do the business. (£15 back @ 2.46)

Given that I am slightly over the limit (ahem!) I have now risked the rest of my bank on my normal trading strategy - under 2.5 goals (liabilty 55.24)

The first big test

Thankfully my thirst for alcohol is stronger than my lust for trading.

Having had a small involvement in the Newcastle game last night, tonight I got sucked into an after work drinking session.

I was itching to get home and put my trading strategy into action, but 4-1 to the Toon at half time was a big shock

So for the 1st time I am in red (-£17.60) on the night. It could have been so much worse!

5 pints and I have just cracked open a bottle of wine, there are some danger signs for the Braga v Spurs game later.

I'm still playing with profit, but need to come through tonight unscathed.

Thankfully I missed out on total carnage

Wednesday 7 March 2007

Uefa Cup Bonanza on Thursday

2 games live on Channel 5 on Thursday night as the Geordies entertain AZ Alkmaar and Spurs visit Braga.

Having had an early look at the prices on the over/under 2.5 goals markets, I have broken with my system slightly and have risked all of my profits so far on 2 early trades.

Firstly I have layed over 2.5 goals in the Newcastle game for a total liability of £17.60 @ 1.88. Very surprised at the price as Alkmaar are a decent side and I expect a tight 1st leg. Hopefully the price will be nearer to 2.00 (evens) by kick off. I may wade in again tomorrow if there is any value left

Secondly, I have backed over 2.5 goals in the Spurs game £15 @2.6o. If past experience is anything to go by, that price should shorten considerably in the run up to kick off. I also quite fancy Spurs to do well and think there will be goals.

Wednesday Summary

A profit of +£8.07 on the night to take my total profit up to +£32.10 since the start of trading.

Its not often Arsene Wenger is open to criticism, and hindsight is a great thing, but playing 2 teenagers Fabregas and Denilson in the centre of midfield backfired

The Gunners lacked physical presence and the protection that Glberto offers in the engine room was sorely missed.

Arsenal v PSV - Trading Update

Result! No goals after 35 minutes and I am all in green again.

Under 2.5 goals =+£8.07, Over 2.5 goals = +£10.03

The system is working quite nicely with small and regular returns.

Next stage is to grow my bankroll and also trial multiple matches as Man U v Lille and Milan v Celtic would also have worked tonight.

I am now about 3% of the way to my target of £1000 and a holiday with my daughter courtesy of Betfair. Come on!

Arsenal v PSV

Despite being a loyal Fulham fan, I must admit that I enjoy watching Arsenal, so that will be my choice of match this evening.

And it should be a tense affair. Arsenal have developed a terrible habit of conceding first this season and if they do so tonight they will have to strike 3 times to progress.

With the game on a knife edge, I fancy a tight 1st half so will be employing my strategy of laying under 2.5 goals (price seems to have consolidated at 2.28) and getting out in the first 20-25 minutes.(will risk c.£70)

Liability £57.40 @ average odds of 2.27

Trading lessons learnt

As I mentioned yesterday, my trading margins on over/under 2.5 goals have suffered sightly because I have been too keen to lay under 2.5 goals (i.e getting in too early).

Having watched the Arsenal v PSV market this evening you could back over 2.5 goals @ 2.40 and lay @ 2.42 when I first looked.

In the last 15 minutes the price has been driven down, you can now back @ 2.24 and lay at 2.26.
Interesting that I could have nicked 6% just by backing early and laying off ,before a ball has even been kicked!

So I am considering a little tweak to my strategy. I will keep you posted on developments

Tuesday 6 March 2007

Arts & Crafts

I'm desperately trying to use up my annual holiday allowance before the end of March so I don't lose them



So I got the chance to spend most of the day with my daughter Mia.


Having spent 6 hours with her on Sunday in the small confines of my flat I decided that we needed an activity to save me further cleaning (I hate cleaning!)

We tried a little arts & craft place in Chiswick http://www.art4fun.co.uk/ and spent about an hour painting a ceramic princess (from Disney).

You can't fault the logic of a 3 year old - when I questioned her decison to paint the hair red she came back with "some people put colour in their hair dad, so it could be red"

And when she accidently splodged red paint on the face, she just laughed and said "look Dad she's got a rash"

The place is pretty good (probably more suited to older children), and their are a lot of objects to paint.

Fairly expensive though (£5.95 per painter and then you pay for what you paint). So I spent £17.95 for an hours fun.

Another downside for me is that it takes 5 days to fire and glaze your work of art and you have to go and pick it up.

On Fire...

Well things are certainly going my way on the trading front.

As mentioned in my last post I backed Barca at HT (£8 @ 3.15). When Eidur Gudjohnsen struck I layed £15 @ 1.29 to lock in a profit of £12.35.

That gets added to the £5.30 profit locked in before HT by trading on under 2.5 goals.

So a daily profit of £17.65.

HT Trading Update

Well somehow I came through the 1st half of the Liverpool v Barcelona unscathed with no goals scored.

I'm now sitting on an all green position +£5.70 under 2.5 goals, +£13.79 over 2.5 goals. So the system has come through 2 nights of trading with small gains.

I haven't quite been hitting my target margins as yet for 2 reasons.

I am trading far too early on the matches - there seems to be a lot of backers of over 2.5 goals in the run up to the match which tends to drive down the laying price by 2%-3% in the run up to the match.

With a small bankroll and little margin for error I have been closng my positions to early (basically I have been bottling it at the first sign of profits).

I would expect Barca to come on strong in the 2nd half, and they look good value at 3.15 to win the game tonight (£8 back)

Liverpool v Barcelona

After a satisfactory start to trading last night, I am going to try and nick some profit from the Liverpool v Barcelona match tonight.

I have layed under 2.5 goals at average odds of 2.13 (total liability of -£71.14).

Liverpool have been solid at Anfield all season and I expect Benitez to take a cautious approach tonight especially in the early stages.

Whilst Barcelona do pose a big threat, especially with the return to fitness of Samuel Eto I can't see them piercing the Liverpool defence in the early stages. So hopefully within the first 20 minutes I will be able to get out for a smallish profit (c.10%-20%) and then sit back and enjoy what should be a cracking match.

I will update progress later tonight

Virgin Media

I've never been a big fan of Richard Branson.

His Virgin Media brand have recently taken over my cable operator NTL and lost out to Sky in a piece of negotiating brinkmanship. The outcome is that they have managed to lose some key channels like Sky One and Sky Sports News from their programming.

Whatever the rights or wrongs of the dispute I was a bit taken aback by the hypocrisy of their holding message that appears on the channels that they refused to pay for..

Thanks to Sky, some of your basic channesl, like Sky One and Sky News are no longer available.

We believe that Sky want to limit our choice, that's why they're removing their channels from Freeview,too.

At a time when Sky are taking content away.....

Virgin Media is:

  • Standing up for consumers
  • Making sure you get a better deal
  • And giving you more

What a load of old pony that is - I'm paying the same amount for less channels, how can they say that is giving me more?

Monday 5 March 2007

Trading Update

Well despite some early scares there were no early goals in the Preston v Southampton game.

I finished trading the match after about 30 minutes in an all green position, so Neil Mellor's strike just before half time had no impact on my position.

Early chances for both sides and good saves by Lonerghan (Preston) and Davis (Southampton) made me nervous, so I started trading out in small chunks as soon as I was in profit.

I am now in a profitable position (all green) regardless of the outcome (+£7.60* if under 2.5 goals, £+6.38* if over 2.5 goals) - *net of commission

So my system is underway and off to a successful start with some small gains. Still a long way to go to reach my target of £1000 for a summer holiday but I like the idea of small and regular returns mounting up over a long period.

No Early Goals - Please!

Preston v Southampton tonight and I am trialling my new trading system by laying over/under 2.5 goals.

So far I have layed under 2.5 goals @ 2.23(average odds) for £58 (liability of 71.44).

The plan is to get out early in the game by backing over 2.5 goals at 2.45 and bigger prices as the game pans out.

I'm hoping to make an average of between 10%-20% across a large number of trades using this system.

I will update my progress later tonight

To text or not to text?

I've been out of the dating game for the last 17 years, so getting back in the saddle was always going to be difficult.

I have managed one date so far this year which was totally nerve wracking and ruined my 5 day abstinence from cigarettes.

But the time has come for me to start being more active and actually trying to find someone that I can actually have soem fun with.

My strategy so far has been to drink as much as possible and go out and hope for the best. As you can imagine this has been a spectacular failure.

It has only taken me about a year, but last week I finally decided that I needed a change of approach.

After reading through some advice online the common theme that came through was that women liked confidence (oh and someone who was not falling over and slurring).

So on Friday I went out trying to exude confidence. Accompanied by 2 younger work colleagues who both quite fancy their chances with the ladies I was determined to put in a good showing, and at least speak to some women.

Instead of standing on the sidelines power drinking I decided to get involved early, and almost got tagged by a rather large (ok she was massive) blonde in the first bar we were in, but despite the urgings of my mates I managed to dodge that bullet.

The confident routine seemed to be working and a couple of bars later and in a notorious cattle market - sorry club -I somehow managed to get a bit of slap and tickle with a petite Malaysian 'girl' (she told me outside the club that she was actually 40!) but she looked younger with my beer goggles on.

The worrying thing was that she texted me early on Saturday morning (surely too keen?), and whilst I controlled my alcohol intake slightly, by 2.00am I was still half cut?

I am totally clueless on the etiquette of this sort of thing. Should I text back?

Trading or Betting?

Although technically I have given up gambling, I have recently started 'trading' on Betfair and with the logic of a problem gambler I think I can make money out of my strategy.

The plan is to turn my £100 bankroll into a summer holiday for me and my daughter. So I am looking to make c.£1000 in 4 months.

My 'system' is very basic, I lay under 2.5 goals in most live football matches and then get out after 10 or 15 minutes for a profit of betweem 10%-20% of my initial stake.

With a lot of luck, discipline and good money management I hope to build my bankroll up to a decent level, so that a small % profit is wothwhile in real terms.

I started messing around with this last week but typically the first time I put my plan into action was during the goalfest at Upton Park (West Ham 3-4 Spurs) and I got burnt.

I did however get out of jail thanks to the longest odds winner of my life. With Spurs 3-2 down with 4 minutes to go I backed them at 131.00 for £2. When they equalised I layed £10 off at 15.00 and still netted a 3 figure profit.

From now on I will be regularly updating you on my progress as I trade my way to my holiday, and if I can work out how I will publish my P&L statement to back this up

Sunday 4 March 2007

Introductions

Hello and welcome to my blog.

Hopefully this will be an entertaining and informative read for anyone who may stumble across this chronicle.

First things first, let's start with some introductions (this is the boring bit)

After an acrimonious marital split and a prolonged and vicious custody battle (more of which later) I am now an eligible bachelor (open to debate!) and part time single Dad.

I am in my mid 30's and there is still a bit of life in the old dog yet, if my performance in Watford on Friday night is anything to go by.

I have a full time job (mainly 9.00am-5.00pm) with a decent salary and in the aftermath of my marriage breakdown I moved into a rented flat that is just a 2 minute walk from my place of work.

The benefits of this scenario are immense. On a good day I can be home by 5.05pm and on a bad morning (there have been a few of them) I can get out of bed at 8.30am. I can also regularly go home for lunch.

The main problem I have is that with so much time on my hands since my marriage split (about 2 years ago) I have spent most of the time on destructive pastimes - the holy trinity of gambling, drinking and smoking. (I will sprinkle the details of some of the more interesting adventures from this period throughout this blog)

The plan is to update regularly on a wide range of topics and also keep you updated on my escapades as I try to find wealth, love and happiness.